lexcalibur's Blogs

10 year life cycle a blessing or a curse.

Is a ten year lifecycle for gaming consoles a blessing or a curse? This is something I've been thinking about since Microsoft recently announced that due to Natal, there are no immediate plans to release another console in the near future. They claim Natal will basically stretch the life of the console out another 5 years.

There are of course positives to this new direction Microsoft are heading. The most obvious of which is that you won't have to shell out another $500-$1000 to get the latest gaming experience, then there is the fact that developers are getting more adept at developing for the hardware and consequentially games are improving from a technical standpoint. However, there are a few things I've been pondering as to why this may not be all sunshine and rainbows.

It has always been Sony's strategy to use a ten year lifecycle, they actually designed their console around this philosophy. Microsoft's recent adoption of this product lifecycle is a little bit iffy though. While I know that the Xbox 360 and the PS3 are basically the same in the quality of games that can be produced, it's the other proprietary features that the Xbox360 lacks that may hold it back from successfully achieving it's 10 year claim. Namely Blu-Ray.

Up until now Blu-Ray has been seen mostly as a gimmick (at least from my perspective), Sony supporters claim that they can use "uncompressed textures" to provide "higher visual fidelity". But really, who notices that? Fact is Xbox 360 games can look and sound just as good even with compressed video and audio. At the moment full games have been able to fit on the DVD-9 discs Microsoft use. However, Final Fantasy XIII is a perfect example of where games are going and while it may not be overly troublesome to change a disc once every 20 hours or so, it's more concerning when you consider that many more future games will require multiple discs.

I'm not looking to start a flame war, but realistically will DVD's be big enough to house full games for the next 6 years? When the Xbox 360 had it's initial 5 year lifecycle, DVD's were fine. You would have the occasional game that would require multiple discs but for the most part they could all happily survive on one. When you double that lifecycle things seem to get a little bit more strained. My big question that arises from this issue is, how will the gaming industry deal with this.

Now, the initial fear I have is that this will hold back the gaming industry as a whole. Due to developers inclination to go multi-platform with every title these days, will the progression of games be stunted due to the limitations of disc space. Can you imagine the next Grand Theft Auto game fitting on one DVD disc? How will you change discs, every time you enter a new city, that is kinda silly. The thing is, and as much as Microsoft supporters would hate to admit, you can fit more game onto blu-ray discs, that's more animations, more audio, more characters, more environments, more everything. Sony is pretty well future proofed moving forward.

So what is the plan for the next five years, with Natal coming on board you will hope for more immersive gaming experiences and maybe disc size won't be an issue at all. These games will likely be more casual offerings that don't require diverse environments and a huge cast of characters. But does this mean that the Xbox 360 is essentially a hardcore gamers console for five years, then a Wii for five years? Or will third party developers hold back the multi-platform games so the 360 and PS3 both offer the same experiences. Will this keep the PS3 back from it's potential to offer more? Will the 360 force you to install full games on the hard-drive so they can run off a single disc like the PC. This is all speculation and I'm sure Microsoft have some grand scheme to offer richer gaming experiences in the future but short term I'm a little concerned.

There was a whole other spiel I was going to go into about a ten year life cycle in general and how PC's will advance that much further because Consoles will essentially using 10 year old hardware by the end, but I don't want this to be too long so I'll leave it at that.

Bottom line is a 10 year lifecycle for consoles is probably something that will become the norm for the gaming industry. Sony is still losing money on every console sold which just illustrates the need to extend out the product life. While I don't have reservations about Sony's long term viability, Microsoft's claim of a 10 year cycle sounds a little bit harder to swallow. Only time will tell how this plays out I guess.

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On 15 January 2010, 12:00PM Posted by Ron

I think we're getting to the point now we're seeing everything we can graphically out of the PS3/360/Wii, sure we'll see some improvements, but overall it won't change much. I think 720 and PS4 are miles away from coming out. Perhaps the 3 big companies could have a gentleman's agreement not to bring out another console for another 5 years and milk this for all it's worth?

 

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On 15 January 2010, 12:06PM Posted by takuyafire

From memory they are looking at expanding the capability of Bluray disks, no doubt to combat something like this issue.

When DVD disks came out we threw away the need for copious CD's and none of us want to go back to those days where each new part of the story required yet another disk change.

I think that when (because unfortunately its not a matter of if) the next gen consoles are released, they will surely not be released for a "10 year life cycle". I'm looking at wikipedia now...in 2001 we had a GeForce2 in play...in 2009 we had a GTX295. If this keeps up...PC will far outmanoeuvre consoles within the next 10 years.

So somethings gotta change...and the developers have got a rough time ahead trying to figure it out...and I hope they do...because its likely that consoles will end up cheaper to combat it :D

 

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On 15 January 2010, 01:33PM Posted by lexcalibur

@ takuyafire,
Yeah they are stretching out the capabilities for Blu Ray, but I'm more concerned about the 360. They can't really have a blu-ray attachment cause that completely screws over the current 360 user-base. So they're only option is to go for multiple DVDs, which is an archaic system I was glad to see go with the PS1.

@Ron
If only the Dreamcast was a part of a gentleman's agreement last generation, then they wouldn't have released too early and shot themselves in the foot.

 

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On 15 January 2010, 11:24PM Posted by tkd_matt

I think the disc capacity doesn't have much to do with this problem. More so it's budgets. AAA games are costing in the 10s of millions, and they fit on dvds. And the current capacity of disc suits the capabilities of the consoles (cpu power, ram etc).

Milking this cycle is a good idea as reuse of engines and assets is going to stop all these companies going out of business. To make games better doesn't mean throwing more capacity at discs, that doesn't change the amount of ram in the consoles to support it, but more budget is the answer, more artists and programmers, unfortunately these companies can't support that, their alternative is also to approach other ways to extend the cycle, motion control.

So I think the current discs are fine for this cycle, and allowing time for these consoles to sell so devs and publishers can make more sales to prepare for the next leap in tech in which budgets again go up, maybe to a point where AAA will be less common on new consoles.

 

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On 16 January 2010, 12:12AM Posted by acedumbunny

I really don't have a problem with changing disks, it is better then installs (due to only having a 20 hard drive for my 360).

If they were to use installs to allow for space saving then (seeing as you used GTA as an example I will too) they could have a second disk which contains the map(s) for the game and maybe some other things which take up to much space on the play disk.

 

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On 16 January 2010, 08:40AM Posted by Donutta

The Blu-ray isn't really in the PS3 for games, let's be honest. Very few games also use it to it's full potential. Even "pure" PS3 games usually sit at around 6 gigs, which a DVD can easily hold. It was the same on the PS2, with many games not using more than a fraction of the DVD. Lego Star Wars actually shipped on a CD.

Since having a bigger disc means nothing to graphics (because you are still dealing with the system memory limitations of the machine), I don't think it's a problem. The only problem I see is core gamers getting anxious for new and prettier graphics and not wanting to wait 5 more years.

 

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On 16 January 2010, 01:16PM Posted by RealmEnder

I think disk size is only an issue for games that use a lot of pre-rendered movies. Final Fantasy XIII appears to have about 32.6GB of movies and 6.8GB of actual game content http://bit.ly/6Ny4Ml For most games DVD is big enough and I don't think it's capacity is holding back the quality of games. Trials HD is one of my favourite games of this generation and it's a tiny 207MB download.

This generation has been turned upside down by the Wii, and it's success has possibly cooled down the technological arms race we've seen in the past. Who knows when we'll see the next console launch? but I hope I don't have to wait another five years. Like you say the PC will continue to advance each year and might start winning back supporters who are into the cutting edge of graphics etc...

 

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On 16 January 2010, 08:37PM Posted by bahamut_zero

Hmmm... I'm inclined to agree with lexcalibur here with regards to disk space and 'archaic' system of changing discs all the time. I am new to the XBOX 360 and was frankly, surprised to see how many games come with more than 2 discs. Being used to the PS3, I just took for granted that all games come with just one disc. Its quite frankly, a pain the ass.

Take for eg, Star Ocean 4 where once you're on the last disc and you need to return to an old area to finish quests etc, you gotta switch discs. And then once you've finished with that area, you have to switch again. That, to me, is just old and lame. So with bigger and better games coming out, are we going to see a game with 6 discs, or maybe 10?? I hope not..

Can I just ask one question though, if XBOX can't or won't use the Blu Ray format for games, can they not use the HD format which lost the battle against Blu-Ray previously.. I mean, it won't be for movies so they can just release games on it. That would solve their disc storage problem wouldn't it. Its probably a really naive question but I was just wondering??

 

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On 18 January 2010, 11:57AM Posted by nimrod76

I like the 10 year life cycle myself, and having a PS3 don't see a problem with storage.
I don't think it will hold things back as far as game quality go.

 

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On 18 January 2010, 04:35PM Posted by leopardsqueezy

Interesting blog.

Everything becomes obsolete though. Sony future-proofed? Yeah, but only for a given definition of "future". Blu-Ray will be obsolete too at some point in the future, don't need to be rocket scientist to figure that out. I thought the cycle was actually less than 10 years (5 or 7 or something), not that that's hugely important.

If they use the storage to increase the game quality, that's great. But in spite of it's supposedly technical superiority and additional storage, don't numerous multi-platform games run better on 360 than on PS3?

The thing I'd like to see most is solid-state. No damn drive noise, instant loading. Is anyone looking into s-s media?

 

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On 19 January 2010, 09:34AM Posted by Srassy

I'm of the opinion that both systems are capable of a 10-year life span. Perhaps even longer! The thing is that only a few companies have the money and the people to maximise the potential of the consoles.

Thus I'm thinking that a new console generation would be entirely unnecessary as it won't really make much difference. And heck there's always bigger formats for Microsoft to use. Maybe one day they'll use Holographic Versatile Discs? :D So far up to 6 TB of data and rising.

 

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On 19 January 2010, 01:12PM Posted by GenBattle

Reply to tkd_matt15 January 2010, 11:24PM
I think the disc capacity doesn't have much to do with this problem. More so it's budgets. AAA games are costing in the 10s of millions, and they fit on dvds. And the current capacity of disc suits the capabilities of the consoles (cpu power, ram etc). Milking this cycle is a good idea as reuse of engines and assets is going to stop all these companies going out of business. To make games better doesn't mean throwing more capacity at discs, that doesn't change the amount of ram in the consoles to support it, but more budget is the answer, more artists and programmers, unfortunately these companies can't support that, their alternative is also to approach other ways to extend the cycle, motion control. So I think the current discs are fine for this cycle, and allowing time for these consoles to sell so devs and publishers can make more sales to prepare for the next leap in tech in which budgets again go up, maybe to a point where AAA will be less common on new consoles.

I totally agree with matt. The reason why PS3 games never look any better than 360 games it because extra quality would require extra work, which would in turn drive up the cost of the games. As it is consumers are happy with the current level of graphics, and most developers are happy with the amount of space available to pack a game in.

The only games which require more than one disk are generally RPGs, because of their large amount of content.

I would argue against the 360 hardware being out of date. The configuration of the hardware is made for graphics in a much more specific way than any PC. The difference between the last 5 years and the next 5 is that manufacturing/fabricating processes for silicon are reaching their limit. Around 2001 CPUs and GPUs used a 180nm process (Pentium III). Current CPUs and GPUs use 32-45nm processes. The limit at which quantum tunneling occurs, rendering the silicon useless, is just over 20nm. This is the absolute limit; at this size we can't go any smaller without breaking the current laws of physics.

As it is, companies who make this silicon are looking for ways of reconfiguring their processes to produce new products like the atom, but they're not actually getting any more power for the same amount of surface area on a chip.

The Xbox has a triple core PowerPC CPU and the PS3 has a 6-core cell, neither will be outdated in the next year or so by AMD and Intel's current offerings.

 

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On 19 January 2010, 01:58PM Posted by lexcalibur

Yeah I get what your saying and for the most part I agree, what matt said about the current limitions of cpu, ram etc... limiting what what games can do therefore limiting the need for bigger discs is a really good point as well.

Having said that there are some games that are nearing the limit of the DVD's. I go back to my GTAIV example, That sits at about 7.1 gigs on the Xbox 360. Now the limit for dual layer DVDs is about 8.4ish gigs. Now can you imagine if they put something the size of San Andreas on Xbox 360, the map is roughly 3 times bigger. Unless they seriously compromise the game there is no way that game is getting on one disc. The thing is it doesn't require any more processing power either it's just a straight up issue of disc space.

With games approaching the limit of DVD based media I was really just trying to highlight the fact that in 5 years time, more games a probably gonna require more discs.

And on the PC thing, I don't know enough about the technicalities of PC hardware to make any conclusive decisions, but I'm pretty sure (however they decide to go about it) it will get better over next five years.

 

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On 19 January 2010, 05:12PM Posted by stealyourbike

Bring on the mutiple DVDs, I say. Getting up to stretch the 'ol legs every once in a while isn't the end of the world.

 

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On 20 January 2010, 12:04PM Posted by emetic

Installs are the way to go.

 

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On 25 January 2010, 07:10PM Posted by Slide

I think that this whole innovation of the current generation through something like Natal will be adapted in the future. This generation will have motion control (despite the Wii already having that capability) and the next will find a new way to increase it's life.

 

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On 25 January 2010, 09:38PM Posted by Crypto139

Its interesting though to note that this is the first true generation of DLC, with games getting bigger and bigger (eg. MGS4, FFXIII) they are taking as much as the whole dual layered blu-ray disc. At the end of this generation, and I dont even think next generation we will be seeing everything downloaded, I mean c'mon, I only get 10GB of broadband a month let a lone 50GB. Then there is the whole issue of HDD's, we will be needing atleast 2TB hard drives if we went totally DLC (which we could very well have in the near future).

My point here is that we simply dont have the technology (atleast not in New Zealand) to have total DLC this or next generation and so the amount of data that will fit on any optical disk will be importanat for upcoming bigger and better games. Sony is going to have an distinct advantage at this point.

Speaking of the console life cycles, next generation consoles should use Holographic Versatile Discs which can hold up to 10TB each! That would future proof them for another 10 years

 

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On 26 January 2010, 01:38PM Posted by GenBattle

The issue with optical disks is not usually how much you can store on them, it's how fast/efficiently you can read the data from the disk. This is why loading times are so horrible on the PS3; all that extra content means more spin cycles to read the much larger resources off the disk.

Once blu-ray technology improves a bit more this won't be as much of an issue, but it will always be an issue of optical storage.

 

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On 30 January 2010, 10:26AM Posted by uk_john

@lexcalibur, As a PC gamer I think you could not have got it more wrong! Firstly, having longer time cycles for consoles means less upgrading for PC's, meaning more money for games - a good thing for the industry - and more people having PC's that will run the games as they 'naturally' upgrade.

Also I found it laughable when you said about the next GTA! Look how much smaller and less content GTA IV had over GTA San Andreas - because of the very multiformat market that you talk about, games are getting 'streamlined' all over the place, meaning RPG's getting more action orientated and more linear (Bioshock 2 and Mass Effect 2, to give just two examples!) and all 'sophisticated' games disappearing from the scene! Even just looking at PC games you have the general consensus that Dawn of War 2 is a 'streamlined' Dawn of War! The soon to be released Supreme Commander 2 is supposed to be 'more strategic' and yet they say the action will start in 2 minutes versus the 20 minutes of the first game! Then you have the RPG Alpha Protocol, where the developers say it will have '25 hours gameplay'! 25 hours for an RPG! that tells you something!

This 'streamlining' of games, whether console, PC or multiformat is already driving many video gamers to retro titles (WiiWare, Sony Arcade and Microsoft Live) over the modern titles, and on PC you have more gamers playing retro PC titles (look at the success of GOG.com, the 5 million plus DOSBox downloads, etc), and of course the vast growth in the indie market.

All this and the growth in the casual market has finally taught publishers that graphics are not where it's at any more, that for everybody but the hardest of the hardcore gamers, the graphics we have had for the last couple of years is good enough. Talk now in the industry is of 'better storytelling' and 'more realistic AI', you don;t hear much about graphics any more!

Finally, the success of WoW and The Sims is showing publishers that between these two titles, indie and retro gaming and casual gaming, the future is not going to be the Graphic wonders, but the game wonders! For example, Dragon Age didn't have anywhere near the quality of graphics of Mass Effect, and yet it sold by the bucket load! Developers and publishers are learning from all these things, so I think it a while before we go beyond one DVD except on rare occasions! As it currently stands all the growth is in those types of games that could fit on one CD, let alone DVD!

 

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On 2 February 2010, 09:58AM Posted by lexcalibur

@ uk_john

'Wow', Now seems like the 'perfect' time to buy a PC. I mean I'm never gonna have to 'upgrade' it ever again going by 'what' you're saying which 'is' AWESOME. It really is great that after all 'these' years the gaming industry is finally at it's peak and 'that' pesky improvements to graphics are a thing of the past.

It's gonna 'be' great to know that my 'PS3' is gonna last me until I die cause I 'really' did find it rather bothersome buying 'new' consoles.

Seriously though, I wish I could get the point of what you're saying. You said it was laughable me mentioning GTA: SA and how it had more content. Then you reapeated my point and didn't mention why you thought it was laughable. It does have more content and it will require more discs, either that or they will 'streamline' it by replacing the vocal dialogue with RPG style text boxes.

Then you talk about the 'streamlining' of games (do you know what putting things in quotation marks means, cause it looks like you are implying the opposite to what I think you're trying to say). I actually laughed when you said Mass Effect 2 has been 'streamlined' seeing it's on two discs further highlighting my point...seriously, nice work.

I don't mind taking criticism 'on' my blogs, I actually like finding out what other people think of the 'topics' 'I' raise which is why I write them. You however 'attack' me, say I'm completely wrong, then reiterate my points. Here's an idea, 'read' what the person writes, formulate a clear (logical) opinion then post it in a less abrasive, more constructive way. 'Oh' yeah, 'and' learn what 'quotation marks' are 'for' too...

 

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On 25 February 2010, 06:14PM Posted by Zzreyos

nice blog bro!!

 

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On 28 February 2010, 06:39PM Posted by Soyerz

All I am going to say is that I am not looking foward to the current gneration of consoles phasing out. I have a feeling that the next generation of consoles will be nothing but 3-D, digital glorified pieces of junk.

Totally up for some new handhelds though.